The four main groups of crested newt species differ in body shape. This morphological variation is correlated with ecological differences: sturdier newts are more terrestrial and slenderer newts more aquatic. This suggests that the differentiation in body shape drove their evolution and that gradually more and more slender newts evolved (by looking at related newts we can deduce that the ‘ancestral’ crested newt was stocky). Conveniently, body shape variation is reflected by discrete differences in the number of rib-bearing vertebrae, with each additional rib corresponding to a slightly more stretched body shape.

The hypothesis is that the radiation of Triturus body shapes came about by stepwise elongation (expressed by the evolution of additional ribs).
However, the crested newts represent a rapid radiation: the four main groups originated in a relatively short time span. This makes it particularly difficult to resolve the relationships between the groups. Previously, using full mitochondrial genomes, we managed to get a resolved tree. However, the mitochondrial genome behaves as a single gene and hence a single estimate of evolutionary history. The nuclear genome, on the other hand, provides a much deeper understanding.

The branching order in Triturus based on full mitochondrial genomes is fully in line with a scenario of body shape evolution involving the least possible evolutionary steps required (here expressed as additions of rib-bearing vertebrae). I dare you to find a tree that explains the variation in the number of ribs in less steps.
Wouldn’t it be great if we could confirm the mitochondrial tree using a battery of nuclear genes? With this mission in mind I used an adaptation of my Ion Torrent protocol to collect relatively long genes with 454 next-generation sequencing. Without going into details, let me tell you it was a huge effort to collect the dataset. But now surely we would solve the crested newt relationships once and for all right? Right?

The new Triturus tree, based on an order of magnitude more nuclear genes than previously studied, is a mess. There is no support for any particular branching order and the tree provides no insight into the evolution of the number of ribs at all.
Not a chance. After finally getting the computationally super heavy analyses to run properly (and waiting a considerable time for them to finish) results were disappointing. Even with all these data and an array of analytical approaches, we could not resolve the evolutionary tree of the crested newts. However, this is a biological reality: our study, published in PLoS ONE, illustrates perfectly the difficulty of resolving rapid radiations. The crested newts are a particularly suitable system to explore the matter further, but for this we need to wait until genome-scale data are available.
Reference: Wielstra, B., Arntzen, J.W., van der Gaag, K., Pabijan, M., Babik, W. (2014). Data concatenation, Bayesian concordance and coalescent-based analyses of the species tree for the rapid radiation of Triturus newts. PLoS ONE 9(10): e111011.

I conducted this work as a Newton International Fellow.